By Bill White | Survivopedia.com | March 2, 2021
One of the things I always like to do is a sort of after-action review of any disasters that come our way.
We can learn a lot by looking back at what has happened and how people reacted to it, even if we weren’t personally affected by the disaster. Those lessons maybe what we need to learn to survive the next upcoming catastrophe.
I’ve already discussed the cascading effects of the February 2021 freeze and how a simple cold front should have been a simple cold front, albeit a rather severe one, turned into a dangerous situation, as one system failed after another. After having experienced that, it seems to be what we can expect to find happening in any future disaster.
The infrastructure that we have created in modern society is incredibly complex. But as we have seen, each piece of it is dependent upon others. So what starts to affect one part of our lives can quickly grow into something that affects everything we depend on.
We talk about this when we talk about the effects of an EMP or CME. But we don’t necessarily apply it to other potential disasters. It’s commonly believed that those grid-down events will cause significant disruption to our lives, leading to many people dying. But we don’t expect something relatively minor to have the same effect. Yet if that freeze was any example, we’ve reached the point where things that seem to be relatively minor can end up having a rather significant impact.
We Can’t Count on Our Plans
One of the first things in the Texas freeze was freezing rain, impacting even before the power went out. Texas is a state where “freezing” usually means that it’s under 60°F, not enough to freeze much of anything. Yet this freezing rain turned the streets to ice, causing a nearly 100 car pileup in Fort Worth.
Freezing rain may not seem like much of a problem, but it can immediately invalidate our plans to get home, as well as any plans to bug out and ride out the disaster in a remote survival retreat somewhere. I have yet to see anyone who has a bug-out vehicle that’s designed to be able to drive on black ice. Anyone whose primary survival plan involved bugging out suddenly found their plans thwarted before they could even start to put them into effect.
Did those people have a backup plan? Were they prepared to bug in, as well as bug-out? If they lost power while stuck in their homes, were they prepared? Or were all their plans based upon being able to bug out and get to their survival retreat?
I don’t care what your plans are; there is always a chance that you won’t implement them. There are just too many variables involved in any survival scenario for us to be sure that we know what will happen ahead of time. That leaves us making some educated guesses along the way, any one of which can be fatally flawed. Then what?
That’s why any plan we come up with needs alternatives, not only an option for the overall plan but options for every portion of our overall plan. There’s no way we can know beforehand what is going to fail and what is not. We’ll find that out when it’s too late to do any more planning. While improvising on the fly is a useful ability, it’s not something we want to count on.
The word is redundancy, and while it is something we talk about when it comes to the gear in our bug-out bags, we are great at talking about it. But when it comes to the rest of our preps, it can easily get forgotten.
Plans are exciting things. We’ve got to have them, but at the same time, we can’t count on them. We have to be ready to abandon or modify our plans immediately, even while trying to survive the situation.
One of the reasons that we make plans is to give us a framework for preparation. Even if we don’t follow our plans exactly, most of what we do to prepare for implementing that plan will be useful. A stockpile of food and supplies, the ability to purify water, and start a fire are pretty much universally useful, regardless of what happens.
The other big reason why we plan is that it is tough to think clearly during a crisis. The “fight or flight reflex” injects massive amounts of adrenalin into our systems so that we can run or fight. But that same adrenalin makes it harder for us to think, as well as lowering our dexterity. That makes it harder for us to do a wide range of tasks, such as shooting a gun and starting a fire. At the same time, we struggle to reason through the situation.
Nevertheless, that’s precisely what we need to do, apply reason to the situation, thinking things through, and deciding what the best course of action is in that exact situation. That might mean staying home and bugging in because of the black ice, even if we don’t have power and water.
So, we all need to be ready both to bug out and to bug in. While most survival writers today recommend bugging in as our first option, the people of Paradise, California, were forced to bug out when their town burnt to the ground. I sure hope they all had their bug-out plans in order.
Have Multiple Bug Out Plans
It’s hard to develop the perfect bug-out plan when we don’t know when we’ll be bugging out or why we will be doing so. That puts us in the position of creating a bug-out plan that is based upon a series of assumptions. While that is necessary, it’s also dangerous.
If our central premise for bugging out is to avoid social unrest, how do we know that the same turmoil will let us bug out? How do we know we’re going to be able to get to our survival retreat? How do we know that our retreat won’t already be occupied when we get there?
The only reasonable solution is also one that’s hard and potentially expensive to do; create multiple bug-out plans. That way, when the time comes to bug out, we can decide which one to put into effect, based upon what dangers we’re trying to get away from. Should our first option not work out as we hoped, we’ve got something else we can do as an alternative.
I had this in operation where I used to live. Since I was right on the border with Mexico, my alternate bug-out plan was to jump across the border and head south. While that wasn’t my main plan, I have enough friends in Mexico that I would have my choice of places to go. While that plan would not be as convenient now, it’s still an option for me since I live farther from the border.
READ FULL ARTICLE
Published on 11/19/2021 (177 days ago) Prepping Tips